It's been a rollercoaster week for U.S. gamers, marked by excitement and uncertainty. The week kicked off with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and games. However, the excitement quickly turned to concern when the console's $450 price tag and the $80 price for Mario Kart Tour were announced. The situation took another turn when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the Trump Administration’s sweeping tariffs on global trade.
We've previously discussed the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. Now, the burning question on everyone's mind is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2's price increase when pre-orders finally open?
Typically, to address such questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. Although they can't predict the future, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on data and evidence. This week alone, I've already sought their insights twice. However, this time, every analyst I spoke with was stumped by the unprecedented nature of the situation. Their responses were filled with guesses about whether Nintendo would raise prices, but each was heavily caveated with the acknowledgment of the current chaotic economic climate. No one can accurately predict what Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or anyone else will do in the coming days, weeks, or months.
With that significant disclaimer in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke with had to say:
Sky-High Switch
The analysts were divided on the potential for a price increase. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to adjust prices after the initial announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo will likely run simulations and announce price hikes for the system, games, and accessories. "I hope I am wrong, but if these sky-high tariffs persist, they leave Nintendo with no choice," he said. "Would you be surprised to see the Switch 2 hit $500 for the base model? I wouldn't."
Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing: "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment that the situation is unprecedented and unpredictable. He believes that game prices, including those from Nintendo, are likely to rise, though the extent and specifics remain unclear. "The breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers," he noted. Piscatella explained that Nintendo had likely set its initial price based on certain tariff assumptions, but the actual tariffs exceeded expectations.
"Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," Piscatella added. He highlighted that the US might join other regions in facing higher game prices due to these tariffs, noting the chaotic nature of their announcement.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts an increase in hardware prices but suggests that software might be less affected. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. Regarding hardware, he believes that companies like Nintendo are unlikely to absorb the additional costs, which could lead to higher retail prices for consumers.
Holding the Line
On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase for the Nintendo Switch 2, particularly due to the high tariffs on Vietnam. However, he believes Nintendo will strive to avoid raising prices. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. He noted that Nintendo has restructured its supply chain to mitigate geopolitical risks and typically aims for a launch price around $400, adjusted for inflation.
"Nevertheless, the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions injects significant uncertainty into the market," van Dreunen added. "This could compel Nintendo to find ways to absorb or offset additional costs, especially when initial product margins are typically narrower. While I expect Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point, external economic pressures may eventually force a reassessment if the trade landscape deteriorates further."
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo risks consumer backlash if it raises prices further. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he said. "The company is now between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price. I suggested that the pricing would stay as announced until 2026 at the earliest but then might be adjusted if the tariffs stay in place."
Harding-Rolls believes the delay in pre-orders gives Nintendo time to find a solution. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now," he said. "If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer's view of the product at launch. I don’t think that will put off loyal fans, but it might put off broader consumers who will take a wait-and-see approach, especially during its first holiday season."
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his earlier comments to IGN about Nintendo announcing cheaper digital editions of games in certain markets. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital," Elliott said. "Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs."
Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes the tariffs will result in a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he said. "And even if companies can afford to switch up their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next?"
Elliott criticized the tariffs' impact on consumers and the gaming industry, noting that they are detrimental during a cost-of-living crisis. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade," he said. "Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business."
He concluded by emphasizing the economic principles that tariffs contravene, stating, "Time and time again, data has shown that tariffs harm the economy. Comparative advantage is a core principle of international trade theory. Basically, consumption and economic well-being are stronger when countries focus on producing goods they can efficiently produce – and trade for goods they are less efficient at producing. The trade war flies in the face of these core economic principles."
Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery
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