Nintendo Cautiously Forecasts Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Nintendo has released what industry analysts are describing as a "conservative" sales forecast for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, amidst ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs. In their recent financial report, Nintendo projected that they will sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million game copies during the financial year ending March 31, 2026. The eagerly awaited Switch 2 is set to hit the shelves on June 5.

The forecast is based on the assumption that the U.S. tariff rates, which were implemented on April 10, will remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, Nintendo acknowledged that any adjustments to these tariffs could impact their projections. "We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions," the company stated.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, labeled the 15 million unit sales target as "conservative." In a tweet, he explained that Nintendo's forecast likely takes into account uncertainties around tariffs, pricing, and production, despite the strong momentum seen in pre-orders. Ahmad further noted that Nintendo could potentially revise its forecast upwards if the tariff situation improves. "However, the main issue right now is the knock-on effects that are already in motion, creating a challenging environment for a console launch, not to mention the threat of increased tariffs," he added.

It's worth mentioning that if the Switch 2 manages to sell 15 million units in its first year, it would rank among the most successful console launches ever, surpassing the original Switch's first-year sales of 14.87 million units.

Demand for the Switch 2 appears to be immense. Following a delay caused by tariffs, pre-orders for the Nintendo Switch 2 commenced on April 24, with the console priced at $449.99. The pre-order response was as overwhelming as expected. Additionally, Nintendo has cautioned U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store that delivery on the release date is not guaranteed due to exceptionally high demand.

For more details on securing your own Switch 2, check out IGN's Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.