Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence projects the Nintendo Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts the Switch 2 will sell 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million by 2028, outpacing competitors Microsoft and Sony.
This success is attributed to its anticipated 2025 release, giving it a significant head start, and a relative lack of immediate competition. DFC Intelligence anticipates that Nintendo will become the console market leader, potentially facing manufacturing challenges due to high demand.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain in early stages. DFC Intelligence forecasts new consoles from these companies by 2028, leaving a three-year window for the Switch 2 to solidify its dominance. The report suggests only one of these post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.
The Switch's enduring popularity is undeniable, having surpassed the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales, reaching the second highest all-time sales in the US market, according to Circana (formerly NPD). This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry, projecting healthy growth through the end of the decade, following a two-year slump. 2025 is anticipated to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI. The gaming audience is expected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027, driven by the accessibility of handheld gaming and the growing influence of esports and gaming personalities. Hardware sales, both PC and console, are also predicted to increase.
